forex newsGold Prices As A Leading Indicator

The AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF all have strong correlation with the gold prices. Natural gold reserves and currency laws in these countries result in almost mirror like movements. The CAD also tends to move somewhat with the oil prices. However, the correlation is not that strong. Each one of these currencies has a correlation with gold and oil and the fundamental reasons of doing so.

Knowledge of the fundamental reasons behind these correlated movements between gold, oil and these currencies and their direction and strength could be a good method to discover trends in both the markets. There is a strong correlation between gold prices and US Dollar too. During times of geopolitical instability as well as when fears of global recession become strong, traders tend to shy away from Dollar and instead turn to gold as a safe haven for their investments.

Therefore, as Dollar depreciates, gold prices tend to appreciate as wary investors become afraid of losing their wealth. AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF currency pairs tend to mirror gold movements. Generally speaking, gold prices are a leading indicator of currency prices. As such, commodity block traders monitor gold and oil prices to forecast movements in currency pairs. This knowledge can help forex traders to diversity their risk exposure using different products. The combination of gold and forex trading can be very profitable.

Follow Gold in Currency Trading
The old image of cranking up the printing press to increase money supply is outdated in the digital age. Now computer keystrokes can create dollars or euros or yen by the billions, and then move them around the globe at cyberspeed. But advances in technology and global finance have not changed the basic economic principle represented by the printing press: when central banks can churn out paper money at will, the value of this paper is highly suspect.

Paper money can be valued, of course. The question is, ‘Against what?’ It would seem that cash is losing its purchasing power at an accelerating rate against other assets because of expansionary monetary policies. You can print money, you can increase the supply of bonds, you can increase the supply of equities through new issues, but you simply cannot increase the supply of oil endlessly, nor of copper, nor of gold. Certainly not of gold.

Since 2000 gold and precious metals have significantly outperformed other financial assets. And the worse the economic and financial conditions of the United States and other countries become, the more value cash will lose against hard assets, which have now become the world’s ‘new money’. In an environment of monetary debasement – that is, when cash loses rapidly its purchasing power– all goods, services and assets become currencies. It is during these times that investors and savers realise that the only way to protect their purchasing power is to move away from paper assets.

Everyone wants to buy gold. Gold is the ultimate global currency. US Dollar used to be pegged to gold before 1973. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods System that year, US Dollar was unpegged from gold. It became a freely floating currency. Free floating for a currency means the value of the currency is determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand. Now US Dollar is only backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Most of the currencies in the world are free floating now. Many countries are also purchasing gold in the open markets as a hedge of their foreign reserves most of which are in US Dollar. In the present financial crisis with the global economy in recession, many investors are trying to take refuge in gold as the ultimate safe haven of their wealth from financial turmoil.

The Australian Dollar is known for its strong correlation with gold prices. Most of this is due to the amount of gold that Australia produces and exports. US Dollar has an inverse relationship with gold prices. When gold prices rise, US Dollar falls in value. This causes the currency pair AUD/USD to rise in value. The opposite of this is also true. When USD gains value, gold usually loses value. The pair AUD/USD depreciates as a result. So when gold prices are rising, we can trade AUD/USD currency pair long. Likewise, when gold falls in value, we can trade AUD/USD short. This relationship may be due to the fact that gold is considered to be the ultimate safe haven of their wealth by investors in times of financial crisis. This relationship provides us with a method that we can use to take advantage of the fundamental factors that influence the currency markets.